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Iran’s military warns a ceasefire could allow the US to regroup for further strikes. The USS Gerald R. Ford’s return to sea signals ongoing US naval presence. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.9% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
The Iranian statement has hit ceasefire prospects, showing distrust in US intentions. April 15 odds fell to 8.5% YES, from 20% yesterday. April 30 odds dropped to 24.5% YES, from 40%. Traders doubt a near-term resolution, despite the USS Ford’s redeployment.
Volume at $95,893 USDC for the April 7 market, with $26,211 needed to move 5 points. This market’s thin depth means a single large trade could significantly sway odds. The largest move in the past day was a 1-point drop, indicating a cautious approach among traders.
Traders remain skeptical of imminent peace. Holding a YES share at 2¢ for April 7 could yield a 50x return if a ceasefire is announced. However, given the current rhetoric, this is unlikely without a major diplomatic shift. Watch for announcements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or a shift in US-Iran communications.
Watch for the next Pentagon briefing or statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader successor. Any softening in language or resumed talks could jolt these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.9% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 24.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 46.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 59.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 71.5% YES
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