Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolfaghari, the spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, has issued a warning that Iran will retaliate against any US attacks on its infrastructure by targeting regional infrastructure. This statement is part of the ongoing US-Iran conflict that has seen increased hostilities since the collapse of a ceasefire earlier this year. The conflict has escalated with both nations conducting military strikes, raising concerns about further destabilization in the region. Zolfaghari’s remarks suggest a possible strategic shift by Iran towards targeting civilian infrastructure in response to any future US actions.

Key Takeaways

• Markets suggest that Zolfaghari’s threat may decrease the likelihood of a US-Iran deal in 2026, as indicated by a 10% expected decrease in the probability of a deal including Iran Reconstruction Funding.
• Recent activity reflects a consistent 26% YES probability for a US-Iran deal in 2026, despite fluctuating odds over the past week.
• The ongoing conflict and potential for further escalation appear to influence market participants’ views on the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution this year.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any developments in military engagements between the US and Iran, as these could significantly impact market sentiment regarding a potential deal. Key indicators may include further statements from Iranian officials or new military actions by either side. Additionally, any renewed diplomatic efforts or mediation attempts could influence the perceived probability of a deal, especially if they involve key actors such as mediators from Qatar and Pakistan or US and Iranian negotiators.

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