Iran warns of US actions in Persian Gulf, impacting peace deal prospects

Iran warned of “dangerous consequences” from US actions in the Persian Gulf, a statement that could weigh on several Polymarket contracts. The US-Iran peace deal market for April 22, 2026, sits at 22% YES, up from 12% a week ago.

The warning has traders skeptical about near-term diplomatic breakthroughs. The peace deal market has risen recently, but today’s news may cap gains. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31 remains at 80% YES, unchanged from yesterday.

The biggest mover recently was the April 19 sub-market for the Hormuz blockade, which sits at 19% YES, with an 18-point spike at 11:47 AM. Traders expect a catalyst in the next three days.

The peace deal market sees $348,124 in daily USDC volume, with $38,676 needed to move odds 5 points, which indicates solid liquidity. The Hormuz blockade market is thinner at just $4,829 in daily USDC traded, making it sensitive to larger orders.

Iran’s rhetoric points toward escalation, making a peace deal by April 22 less likely without any diplomatic traction. A YES share at 22¢ pays $1 if a deal is reached, a 4.5x return. Traders are cautious on that bet for now.

Watch for any US-Iran diplomatic overtures or Trump administration announcements about Hormuz. A Trump statement or Pentagon briefing could shift odds quickly.

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