Iran warns US against renewed aggression amid conflict fears

Iran’s armed forces have warned the US against renewed aggression, raising fears of wider conflict. The probability of Iran’s military action against Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES.

Market reaction

The market for Iranian regime fall by June 30 has moved to 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The Iran military action against Israel market is priced at certainty for a strike before month-end, with no movement in odds. Zero deviation in the face value means traders are locked in on this expectation following recent US-Israeli operations targeting Iran.

Why it matters

The Iranian regime market has daily volume at $35,587 in actual USDC traded, with $16,830 required to move the market 5 points. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike, indicating cautious positioning. Iran’s warning complicates the already fragile ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. The end-2026 market for Iran’s head of state change shows no current odds, which suggests traders treat leadership change as a longer-term possibility.

What to watch

Developments from US envoys in Pakistan and any shifts in Iranian military posturing are the main indicators for market movements in the coming days.

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