Iran warns US, Israel of military retaliation, rejects ceasefire deadlines

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman rejected any deadlines on national interests and warned the U.S. and Israel of military retaliation. The probability of a ceasefire by April 30 has dropped to 34.5% YES, down from 59% yesterday.

Market reaction

The US-Iran ceasefire market saw a 4-point drop in the last 24 hours, the largest single move in recent sessions, with only 12 days until the deadline. Odds of no diplomatic meeting by June 30 have risen to 1.5% YES, up from 2%. Volume in the ceasefire market is at $80,435 in actual USDC traded. Moving the odds 5 percentage points requires $1,566, so the book is relatively thick for a political market of this size.

Why it matters

Iran’s explicit rejection of deadlines and ultimatums leaves little room for negotiation within the April 30 window. Traders are pricing in continued conflict rather than resolution. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before June 30 remain low, consistent with the hardline rhetoric from Tehran.

What to watch

Any announcements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or a shift in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian leadership, could trigger rapid repricing. A YES share for a ceasefire by April 30 is priced at 34.5¢, offering a 2.63x return if it resolves. That bet requires believing in a diplomatic breakthrough or rapid de-escalation within 12 days.

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