Iran’s ambassador to Mexico, Abolfazl Pasandideh, told Politico that his country’s national soccer team should compete in the 2026 FIFA World Cup despite the obvious elephant in the room: the tournament is being co-hosted by the United States, a country with which Iran has a relationship best described as “complicated.”

“Some believe Iran should not participate in these competitions because America attacked our country, but our view is humanitarian,” Pasandideh said. “We believe sports can help spread peace. We have no problem with the American people.”

The Tijuana workaround

Iran’s national team has set up its base camp in Tijuana, Mexico, because US visa restrictions require players to enter and exit American territory on the same day they play their matches.

The coaching staff hasn’t had it much easier. Mission-based personnel have reported difficulties obtaining the necessary visas, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fraught situation. Iran is slated to play in Group G against New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt, and FIFA has kept those fixtures on the schedule.

Prediction markets seem fairly confident the show will go on. Platforms like Polymarket are pricing Iran’s participation odds at roughly 94-98%, suggesting that despite the diplomatic friction and visa headaches, most bettors expect the team to take the pitch.

Where crypto fits into the World Cup picture

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has attracted significant crypto sponsorship interest. Kraken, Chainlink, and Avalanche are all among the tournament’s sponsors. No tokens have moved meaningfully in response to the ambassador’s remarks or the team’s preparations.

Prediction markets as the real story

Polymarket’s 94-98% odds on Iran competing represent a real-time aggregation of information from people with skin in the game, processing visa restrictions, diplomatic signals, FIFA’s official stance, and the ambassador’s comments into a single probability.

The risk scenario, a last-minute withdrawal or ban that turns the sponsorship into a PR liability, sits at roughly 2-6% based on Polymarket’s pricing.