Iranian attacks, dual blockade keep Strait of Hormuz tensions high

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market prices a return to normal by May 15 at 20.5% YES, down from 20% a day ago, as Iranian attacks and a dual blockade show no signs of easing.

Market reaction

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market with 21 days remaining reflects trader skepticism about near-term resolution. The U.S. maintains a naval blockade while Iran has deployed sea mines. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point drop at 12:40 AM.

The US escorts through Hormuz market sits at 4.5% YES, down from 7% yesterday and 16% a week ago. No new concrete escort actions have materialized despite Iranian threats, and traders clearly don’t expect U.S. military escorts before April 30.

Why it matters

This isn’t a replay of the 1980s Tanker War. Today’s situation involves a complete closure attempt rather than selective attacks on shipping, which is a more severe disruption. Daily USDC volume on the Strait of Hormuz traffic market is $28,105, with $5,593 needed to move odds five percentage points, making it moderately liquid but exposed to large trades. The escort market is thinner: $1,253 in daily volume and only $568 needed for a 5-point shift, meaning single large orders can move the price substantially.

What to watch

At 4.5%, a YES share in the escort market pays 22.2x if it resolves positively. The lack of recent affirmative signals from the Pentagon keeps this price low. Any CENTCOM announcements, Iranian Foreign Ministry statements on the blockade, shifts in U.S. naval positioning, or changes in Iranian tactics could move both markets sharply.

API CTA

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.