Senior Iranian MP Ali Nikzad stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions. The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 have dropped to 14.5%, down from 20% yesterday.

Market reaction

The Strait of Hormuz traffic by May 15 market fell sharply after Nikzad’s comments. Only $4,658 is needed to shift the market by 5 percentage points, a sign of thin liquidity. The announcement of a US blockade lift by May 31 also fell, now at 54.5%, down from 72% yesterday.

Why it matters

Nikzad’s statement signals that Iran does not expect a return to normal shipping conditions, which makes a US announcement lifting the blockade less likely in the near term. The current fragile ceasefire and ongoing blockades from both sides point away from a swift resolution, and traders are pricing that in.

What to watch

The Hormuz traffic market had $36,459 in actual USDC daily turnover, showing continued trader interest even as odds thin out. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a minor 2-point spike, consistent with the overall bearish direction. A YES share in traffic returning to normal by May 15 is priced at 15¢, offering a potential 6.67x return. For that bet to pay off, a major diplomatic breakthrough would need to happen within 21 days. Watch for any shifts in US-Iran negotiations or military activity, particularly announcements from CENTCOM or the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

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