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An Iranian MP claims a US Vice President’s proposal could derail negotiations over Iran’s frozen assets. The ceasefire-by-April-15 market sits at
The news has cast doubt on the permanent peace deal market, as it suggests US demands might halt progress. Talks in Islamabad hit a snag over a proposal Iran perceives as inadequate, and the market reflects a bearish outlook. The ceasefire market hasn’t moved, maintaining its high probability, though further developments could change that.
The 100% YES odds across all ceasefire sub-markets from April 15 to December 31 show a flat term structure. If negotiations continue to falter, that uniformity could break. The ceasefire market’s stability doesn’t mean the underlying situation is settled.
Trading volume over the last 24 hours is $0. That stagnation means any future price movement will depend on fresh developments or large orders that shift perception. There is no liquidity to absorb new information right now.
This setback matters because the negotiations are fragile. A YES share in the peace deal market could pay well if a breakthrough occurs, but that’s a speculative bet given the current impasse. Progress on asset unfreezing or meaningful concessions from either side would be needed to move the odds.
Watch for statements from US Vice President JD Vance or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Any sign of resumed talks or softened positions could be the catalyst for market movement.
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