Iranian negotiators in Islamabad for indirect US talks, ceasefire holds

Iranian negotiators have arrived in Islamabad for indirect talks with the US, hosted by Pakistan. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 sits at 100% YES.

The Iranian delegation is led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Their presence in Islamabad matters for the US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market, where traders are pricing the likelihood of a formal agreement by April 22. The US-Iran Ceasefire market has all sub-markets priced at 100% YES, indicating traders see the ceasefire as holding.

The ongoing talks appear to lower the chances of Trump announcing the end of the ceasefire, as that market remains inactive with no current odds. Pakistan’s mediation role and the seniority of the negotiators present suggest both sides want to avoid escalation.

Traders should watch for specific outcomes from these talks, particularly sanctions relief or commitments on nuclear constraints. At 22¢, a YES share in the permanent peace deal market pays $1 if a deal is signed by April 22, a potential 4.5x return.

Statements from JD Vance or Abbas Araghchi are the most likely catalysts. Any public confirmation of progress or breakdown will move these markets. Pakistan’s announcements about the talks could also shift pricing.

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