Iranian president admits to killing protesters amid regime support claims

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian admitted to authorities killing protesters while asserting popular support for the regime. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are at 9.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Market reaction

Pezeshkian’s statement comes amid ongoing protests and a leadership vacuum following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Iranian Regime Fall market ticked down slightly on the news. The Iran Leadership Change market has drawn increased interest, as Pezeshkian’s admission may signal instability beneath the surface.

Why it matters

The Reza Pahlavi Entry into Iran market could see indirect effects. Regime instability may create conditions for Pahlavi’s return, though there are no direct actions or announcements tied to that scenario.

Pezeshkian’s admission of protester deaths, paired with ongoing unrest, points to a weakening grip on power, even as he claims popular support. The dip from last week’s odds suggests traders are waiting for more concrete signs of regime change or leadership shifts before moving.

What to watch

Internal fractures within the IRGC, an unexpected convening of the Assembly of Experts, or international diplomatic moves could all shift market perceptions of regime stability quickly.

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