Iranian protests have surged after US-Iran peace talks failed, pushing the likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 10.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Talks collapsed in Islamabad after both sides failed to reconcile over nuclear and regional proxy issues, sparking renewed unrest in Iran. US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 sits at 100% YES despite the fragile nature of the current ceasefire. The breakdown has also deflated expectations that Trump will meet Iranian demands this month, with those odds looking bearish.

The Iranian regime stability market saw $85,435 in daily USDC volume, but the price moved just 1 point, a sign that traders are cautious. The cost to shift the market 5 points is $27,572, which points to significant support at current levels. The ceasefire markets, meanwhile, are flatlined at 100%, a disconnect between market pricing and geopolitical reality on the ground.

Protests in Iran raise questions about regime fragility. The regime fall market is priced at 10.5¢ for YES, offering a 9.5x return if it resolves. The core question for traders: whether these protests can grow into something large enough to actually destabilize the regime.

Watch for announcements from Iranian opposition figures or visible signs of regime instability. The Assembly of Experts convening or Mojtaba Khamenei’s public absence could be key indicators.

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