The Iranian rial has fallen to a record low of roughly 1.8 million per dollar on the black market as a US naval blockade intercepts oil shipments. On Polymarket, the probability of an Iranian regime fall by June 30 sits at 8% YES, unchanged from 8% a week ago.

Market reaction

The blockade continues despite a shaky ceasefire and is cutting off Iran’s primary revenue source: oil exports. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market is up 7 points from the April 30 contract, suggesting traders see accumulating pressure but not an imminent break. Daily volume is $16,685 in USDC, and it takes $22,030 to move the odds by 5 points. The largest move in the past day was a minor adjustment, with traders holding positions rather than making aggressive bets.

Why it matters

A currency collapse of this scale directly erodes the regime’s ability to pay security forces, subsidize goods, and maintain domestic stability. But at 8%, the market prices regime survival as overwhelmingly likely through June 30. Traders appear to treat the economic deterioration as real but insufficient on its own to trigger a regime fall within six weeks.

What to watch

A YES share at 8¢ pays 12.5x if the regime falls by June 30. For that to happen, the economic crisis would need to translate into mass public unrest, IRGC defections, or a visible fracture within the regime’s leadership. Statements from senior US or Iranian officials about negotiations or escalation would also move this market.

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