Iranian threats block US Navy mine-clearing in Strait of Hormuz

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and the market for traffic normalization by April 30 sits at 0% YES.

The US Navy’s recent attempt to clear mines with drones was thwarted by Iranian threats, keeping tensions high. With only 17 days left, the traffic normalization market is effectively dead for an April resolution. The absence of any coordinated effort with Iran makes a quick reopening unlikely.

In related markets, the chance of the US escorting commercial ships through the Strait by April 30 is at 24% YES, down from 32% just 24 hours ago. The April 15 escort market is at 6% YES with only 2 days remaining.

The Strait of Hormuz normalization market has seen zero USDC traded in the last 24 hours, suggesting complete trader consensus on the stalemate. The escort market has volume at $5,486 in daily USDC traded, and it takes $3,091 to shift the price by 5 points, meaning small bets won’t move it.

With Iran maintaining control over the strait and US-Iran talks producing little, the status quo favors continued energy price increases. A YES share in the traffic normalization market at essentially zero offers no actionable value unless a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough occurs.

Watch for formal announcements from the Trump administration or Iranian officials regarding a ceasefire extension or operational changes in the strait. The next CENTCOM statement or Iranian Foreign Ministry briefing could signal whether tensions are shifting.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.