Iranians rally in Seoul, Tokyo for regime change after Pahlavi’s call

Iranians in Seoul and Tokyo gathered near US embassies to back the “Lion and Sun revolution,” following a call by Prince Reza Pahlavi. The possibility of an Iranian regime fall by June 30 sits at 9.5% YES, slightly down from 10% yesterday.

These rallies are part of a broader wave of diaspora protests supporting regime change. Market odds remain relatively stable despite the demonstrations. The Iranian regime fall market dropped from 14% a week ago to 9.5% YES, reflecting skepticism about the immediate impact of these gatherings.

The market for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran remains quiet with no significant trading activity. Traders appear cautious, likely because Pahlavi has made no concrete statements about returning to Iran.

Daily trading volume in the Iranian regime fall market is at $23,487, with $32,505 needed to move the odds by 5 percentage points. This points to moderate liquidity: interest exists, but meaningful shifts in sentiment would require large orders.

The diaspora protests add pressure on the Iranian regime, but without direct involvement from Pahlavi himself, the impact stays limited. Traders betting on a regime change by June 30 could see a 10.5x return if successful. For that to happen, signs of regime instability or leadership fractures would need to appear soon.

Watch for any announcements from Reza Pahlavi or changes in the Iranian leadership’s public visibility. A key indicator would be movements from the Assembly of Experts or changes in IRGC command.

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