Iranians rally outside US embassies, urge pressure on Tehran

Iranians demonstrated outside US embassies globally, urging sustained pressure on Tehran. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 9.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

The rallies echo Reza Pahlavi’s calls for pressure and could affect the Reza Pahlavi entry into Iran market. No direct developments regarding his return have been reported, but the protests keep pressure on Tehran. The 9.5% probability of regime change shows traders price in persistent instability without expecting imminent collapse.

The Iranian regime fall market trades $23,487 in USDC daily. It takes $32,505 to move the odds by 5 points, which suggests traders have conviction in their positions. The US forces entering Iran market remains fully priced at 100% YES, showing no new military developments are expected.

Protests keep Tehran under pressure, but one-off rallies rarely topple governments. That said, YES shares at 9.5¢ pay $1 if the regime falls, a 10.5x return. For that bet to pay off, significant regime instability would need to materialize in the next 81 days.

Watch for internal regime fractures: IRGC defections or the Assembly of Experts convening unexpectedly. Either would signal a real shift in the probability of regime change.

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