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Iran has announced it will determine the outcome of any conflict against it, causing ceasefire odds by April 7 to drop to 1% YES from 12% last week.
Iran’s declaration has sharply reduced the likelihood of a ceasefire. The April 7 market on Polymarket has fallen to 1% YES. The April 15 market also dropped to 6% YES from 22% a week ago. The April 30 market is now at 18% YES, down from 40% last week. End-of-year odds remain steady, with December 31 at 68.5% YES.
Trading volume shows $3.76M in face value, with $430,773 in actual USDC traded. Order book depth varies, needing $12,367 to shift the April 7 market by 5 points, compared to $40,022 for April 15. The April 30 market saw a 2-point increase, hinting at some optimism for resolution.
Iran’s statement, from a Tier 3 channel, has reinforced bearish odds for a ceasefire. With Iran asserting control, traders expect continued conflict. A YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 at 1¢, reflecting the low chance of a truce. Significant diplomatic changes would be needed for optimism to rise.
Watch for actions by intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or shifts in rhetoric from figures like Trump or CENTCOM, which could affect market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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