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Iran’s denial of refusing U.S. negotiations in Pakistan has dropped ceasefire by April 7 odds to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Statements from Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistani officials suggest ongoing diplomatic stalemate. The April 7 market isn’t alone in this trend. April 15 odds fell to 6% YES, and April 30 saw a sharper drop to 18% YES. The biggest decline hit May 31, now at 36% YES, a 10-point drop from yesterday.
Markets are active, with 24-hour USDC volume at $430,773. The April 30 market trades nearly $197K daily, and $19,938 can shift odds by 5 points, indicating susceptibility to large trades.
For traders, the denial is more noise than signal. A YES share at 1¢ for an April 7 ceasefire offers high potential payout, but progress is unlikely. Betting on later dates like June 30 at 52¢ seems more realistic, reflecting belief in longer-term resolution. Without mediation from Oman or Qatar, odds won’t improve soon.
Watch for CENTCOM updates or diplomatic moves from intermediaries like Oman. These could shift the market.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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