Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says Iran will not negotiate under threats and hints at military preparations. Ceasefire by April 30 is at 37.5% YES, down from 36% a week ago.

Ghalibaf’s statement is bearish for the ceasefire market because it signals Iran’s readiness for military escalation rather than compromise. The ceasefire market dropped, with traders now pricing in a 15% expected move against peace prospects. The permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at just 20% YES, showing deep skepticism about any near-term diplomatic deal.

In the broader peace deal market, odds for an agreement by April 30 are at 41.5% YES, while June 30 is at 70% YES. The spread between these two dates suggests traders expect a possible diplomatic catalyst in May, possibly from backchannel efforts or intermediary negotiations.

The US-Iran ceasefire market is thin: $54,670 in daily USDC volume, and it takes only $841 to move odds 5 points. This low liquidity means even moderate trades can shift prices sharply. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point drop, showing how fragile sentiment is.

Ghalibaf’s comments are a clear signal of Iran’s hardened stance and reduce short-term hopes for formal peace. Buying YES at 20¢ on a peace deal by April 22 would pay 8.33x, a long shot that would require rapid diplomatic developments or unexpected concessions to justify.

Watch for moves from intermediaries like Qatar or Oman, or any shift in rhetoric from US officials. New military actions or evidence of Iran ramping up capabilities could move these markets fast.

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