Iran’s ghost fleet evades US measures, complicating Strait of Hormuz traffic

Hundreds of ghost-fleet vessels continue dodging U.S. measures targeting Iran’s oil trade, and the Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 sits at 18% YES.

The U.S. naval blockade and sanctions are part of an intensified pressure campaign, but Iran’s shadow fleet keeps slipping through. The Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 30 market has dropped sharply, with traders skeptical about any near-term resolution. The persistence of ghost fleets and the continued blockade point to tensions holding for now.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing contract trades with zero volume, meaning limited engagement and high uncertainty. The 18% price suggests some interest, but the lack of actual USDC traded makes this a thin market that could swing hard on new developments. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete signals before committing.

The ghost fleet’s successful evasions show the blockade is not a catch-all solution, and that complicates any quick resolution. At 18¢, a YES share pays $1 if traffic normalizes by June 30, a 5.5x return. For this bet to pay off, a breakthrough in talks or a major U.S.-Iran agreement would need to happen fast.

Watch for U.S.-Iran talks hosted by Pakistan on April 11-12. Any announcements or shifts in U.S. naval strategy could move these odds quickly.

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