Iran’s internet blackout exceeds 1,100 hours, crippling digital economy

Iran’s internet blackout has surpassed 1,100 hours, straining the nation’s economy. The market for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is at 10% YES, up from 8% a week ago.

The shutdown, triggered by protests over fuel price hikes, is hitting Iran’s digital economy hard. This sector employs around 10 million people, and daily economic losses are estimated between $37 million and $80 million. The market for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 has dropped to 4% YES, down from 6% a week ago. Traders appear to see the regime holding through May but facing greater risk by June.

The June 30 market has ticked up in odds as the shutdown drags on. Order book depth shows it takes $59,096 to move the odds by 5 points, which points to institutional interest and serious risk evaluation. The May 31 market dropped 1 point in the last 24 hours, driven by a significant single-candle price move.

The internet shutdown is a political tool, not just a technical disruption. The regime’s reliance on internet controls to manage crises exposes a structural weakness. At 10¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 10x return. Traders buying at that price are betting on escalating unrest and systemic failure.

Watch the Assembly of Experts and the public visibility of figures like Mojtaba Khamenei. Changes there could spike market volatility. Any signal about the IRGC’s stance matters too, since their loyalty is central to regime stability.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.