Iran’s navy and air force destroyed in Operation Epic Fury, ceasefire holds

Iran’s navy and air force have been decimated following Operation Epic Fury. The US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sits at 0% YES, military action against Iran ending by April 2026 is also at 0% YES, and odds for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have dropped to 9.5% YES, down from 14% a week ago.

Market reaction

The destruction of Iran’s military capabilities has produced a temporary ceasefire, cooling expectations of further US military action. The market on military action against Iran ending by April 2026 remains at 0% YES, meaning traders expect the current ceasefire to hold even given the fragile state of US-Iran talks. The US declaration of war on Iran market is also priced at 0% YES as de-escalation efforts continue.

Why it matters

The odds for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have dropped to 9.5% YES. Iran’s military has been heavily degraded, but the regime remains intact and engaged in ceasefire negotiations. Daily volume on this market is $23,487 in actual USDC, which points to weak conviction around regime change.

The ceasefire and reduced military action represent a shift toward diplomacy, lowering the chances of further escalation. But the destruction of Iran’s navy and air force means any renewed conflict would be heavily lopsided against Iran. Current odds imply that neither a formal declaration of war nor regime change is likely without a major new trigger.

What to watch

The next Pentagon briefing and any announcements from CENTCOM. Changes in the US military’s readiness posture or statements about resumed operations could shift market expectations quickly.

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