Earn with Nexo
Iran’s plan for tanker oversight in the Strait of Hormuz and its identification of strike targets have lowered the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Iran’s actions in the Strait suggest escalation, causing the April 7 ceasefire market to drop 2 points. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, showing a similar decline. However, the April 30 market rose 4 points to 38% YES, indicating traders expect developments later in the month.
$1.37M in USDC was traded in the last 24 hours, showing strong liquidity. The April 15 and April 30 markets have USDC depths of $43,954 and $16,655 to move 5 points. The largest move was a 4-point rise for April 30, likely due to mid-April expectations. The market is sensitive to geopolitical shifts.
Iran’s stance increases ceasefire risks, with traders betting on further conflict. At 8¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, a 12.5x return. This bet assumes an unlikely quick de-escalation. Traders should monitor Oman or Qatar’s actions and Trump’s statements for negotiation signs.
Hegseth’s upcoming Pentagon briefing is key, especially any operational changes, which could shift odds.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.