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Iran’s president asserts no hostility toward ordinary Americans. The ceasefire by April 7 market drops to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Despite ongoing conflict, the April 30 market holds at 38.5% YES, indicating traders don’t expect a quick resolution. The president’s remarks haven’t changed this view, as markets await concrete actions.
Traders anticipate a catalyst between April 15 and April 30, with a 19-point odds increase. This suggests potential progress in talks or a temporary ceasefire. The May 31 market at 56.5% YES reflects longer-term optimism, but skepticism remains short-term.
Volume at $1,349,365 in USDC was traded across these markets in the last 24 hours. It takes $47,034 to move the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating moderate resistance. The largest move was a 3-point drop at 9:56 PM, showing low confidence in immediate progress.
The president’s softer tone is positive but symbolic without action. At 8¢, a YES share on an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves, a 12.5x return. A significant diplomatic breakthrough is needed soon for this to be viable.
Watch for statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or any back-channel negotiation confirmations. Trump’s upcoming speeches could also influence market sentiment.
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