Iran’s Supreme Leader approves ceasefire with US, demands guarantees

Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved a ceasefire with the United States, according to an Iranian lawmaker, with the demand for enforceable guarantees in negotiations. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market is at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

Market reaction

The ceasefire market surged across all sub-markets. April 15 and April 30 both traded at 100% YES, with April 30 rising from 34% a week ago. May 31 and June 30 also sit at 100% YES. The flat term structure across all dates means traders see the ceasefire as already resolved, with no further upside priced in.

Why it matters

Volume hit $3.23M in USDC traded in the last 24 hours. The largest move was a 4-point spike after the announcement, showing high sensitivity to official statements. At these levels, relatively small trades can still produce significant price moves.

What to watch

This is not a done deal. Iran is demanding guarantees including sanctions relief and compensation. Israel’s stance in Lebanon and Iran’s broader conditions could still derail talks. At 100¢, a YES share offers zero payout upside unless the ceasefire collapses. Watch for new military actions or hostile rhetoric that could shift odds.

The Islamabad negotiations resume April 10. Any movement on guarantees or Israeli restraint could move these markets.

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