Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council has warned the US to stop “futile attempts,” reinforcing Tehran’s stance on the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have fallen to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Iran’s firm position suggests a bleak outlook for a quick ceasefire. April 7 odds dropped 2 points after the statement, reflecting doubts about fast diplomatic progress. April 15 and April 30 also saw declines, with a notable 20-point increase between April 15 and April 30, indicating traders expect developments post-mid-April.

Trading volume at $1.37M shows strong activity, but the order book depth reveals $15K needed to move 5 points, indicating a thin market where trades can shift odds. The largest price move was a 2-point drop, showing cautious positioning amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The market views Iran’s statement as a sign of a prolonged standoff. Using the Strait as leverage suggests ongoing tensions, making a quick diplomatic breakthrough unlikely. At 8¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced by April 7, offering a 12.5x return. Believing in rapid de-escalation within five days is challenging.

Watch for signals from intermediaries like Oman and Qatar or any changes in US rhetoric. Trump’s threat to Iranian energy infrastructure remains, but lacks concrete action.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES

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