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Iran’s insistence on yuan-denominated oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz complicates US-Iran ceasefire efforts. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
The April 7 deadline is nearly dead, with the market at 1% YES — a sharp fall from 12% a week ago. April 15 odds also dropped to 6% from 22% a week ago, as traders absorb the lack of diplomatic progress. The April 30 market sits at 18%, reflecting skepticism about near-term resolution. The largest jump in expectations occurs between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders see potential catalysts in late May.
This market sees a daily face value of $3.76M, but only $430K in actual USDC changes hands. It takes $12,367 to move the April 7 odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest recent shift was a 2-point spike in May 31 odds, possibly due to large order influence.
Iran’s push for yuan-based oil sales highlights the conflict’s complexity beyond military engagements. The Hormuz blockade and energy disruptions are tactical moves in a larger strategic game involving global oil trade and currency dominance. At 1¢ per YES share, the April 7 market reflects minimal confidence in a quick resolution. A YES share at 18¢ for April 30 would pay $1 if resolved, showing trader skepticism about imminent peace talks.
Watch for shifts in intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar or any significant changes in rhetoric from the US or Iran. Next signals may come from Trump’s statements or any new diplomatic overtures from global actors like the UN.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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