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Iraqi PMF forces have entered Iran to support the regime amid ongoing protests and potential conflict with the US. The odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 have surged to 86% YES, up from 62% just 24 hours ago.
The sharp rise in odds indicates traders expect a higher chance of US troop involvement. The April 30 market gained 24 points overnight. Meanwhile, the December 31 market sits at 90% YES, a 4-point increase, suggesting long-term expectations for ground operations remain strong.
The combined daily volume of these markets is $5,069,224 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. It takes $85,204 to move the April 30 market by 5 points, showing strong liquidity. A notable 4-point spike occurred at 2:14 PM, pushing the odds from 78% to 83%, likely due to significant buy orders.
The entry of PMF forces into Iran could change the dynamics. It shows the regime’s need for external military support amid internal unrest, raising the likelihood of direct US intervention. At 14¢, a NO share for April 30 pays $1 if US forces do not enter Iran by then — a 7x return, but you’d need to believe in imminent de-escalation.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon about troop movements or operational plans. Hegseth’s next briefing or any War Powers discussions in Congress will be crucial indicators of the shifting military posture.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
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