The IRGC reportedly locked 16 cruise missiles on US warships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a retreat. The market on UK warship transit through the Strait by April 30 sits at 15.5% YES, down from 12% a week ago.

The missile lock-on has pushed traders further against the UK warship transit market. With 14 days until resolution, the market is thinly traded: face value of daily trades is $24,906, but actual USDC volume is $2,086 per day. It takes just $427 to move this market 5 percentage points.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market dropped too, now at 73% YES, down from 60% just 24 hours ago. The sharpest move was a 4-point drop at 6:46 PM, suggesting traders reacted quickly to the escalation. This market is more liquid at $10,250 USDC traded daily, but still moves easily given its $354 depth to shift 5 points.

The missile lock-on is a real escalation, but it doesn’t signal imminent conflict. It does show how fragile the ceasefire is and how volatile conditions remain in the Strait. A YES share at 15.5¢ pays $1 if a UK warship transits by April 30, a 16.67x return. That payout requires either a diplomatic breakthrough or a deliberate UK decision to test IRGC resolve within two weeks.

Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence and any further IRGC actions. A confirmed UK or allied ship transit would be the key catalyst, and any additional IRGC provocations could make such a passage less likely.

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