IRGC’s Vahidi gains power, reducing odds of US-Iran peace deal by April 22

IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi is gaining the upper hand over moderates like Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf in Iran’s internal power struggle, and the likelihood of a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 has dropped to 19.5% YES, down from 16% yesterday.

Market reaction

The IRGC’s tightening grip is dragging on the April 30 and May 31 markets too. April 30 odds sit at 41.5% YES, while May 31 has risen to 61.5% YES. The 26-point gap between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders expect something concrete to happen in that window.

Daily volume in USDC is $543,694 for the April 22 market and $338,618 for April 30. It takes $63,459 to shift the April 22 market by five points, which indicates real depth. The biggest single move was a 4-point spike for April 22 at 4:27 PM, showing fast trader reactions to incoming information.

Why it matters

Vahidi has consolidated power with direct access to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, which reduces Iran’s diplomatic flexibility. Hardliner dominance makes the kind of concessions required for a permanent deal less likely on short timelines. At 12¢, a YES share pays $1 if a peace deal is signed by April 22, a 8.3x return. That bet requires an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in the next two days.

What to watch

Any strategic statements from Mojtaba Khamenei or shifts in IRGC positioning could move these markets quickly. Changes in the Vahidi-Ghalibaf dynamic would be the clearest signal of whether diplomatic channels are opening or closing further.

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