Israel confirms self-defense carve-out under Lebanon ceasefire

Israel confirmed a self-defense carve-out under the Lebanon ceasefire. The Ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.

The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market is now at 97% YES, up from 67% a week ago. The April 30 market spiked 13 points at 1:16 PM, moving from 59% to 72% in direct reaction to the news.

The suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 market is at 99.9% YES, up from 87% in the last 24 hours. Traders are pricing in de-escalation, with the self-defense clause giving Israel a mechanism to respond to provocations without formally breaking the ceasefire.

The self-defense provision complicates full peace. The market is priced for a ceasefire holding but leaves room for volatility if Hezbollah tests the self-defense limits. Buying YES at 94¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire holds, a 1.06x return. The main risk is whether skirmishes under the self-defense clause get classified as ceasefire breaches.

Watch for Israeli Defense Forces statements and Hezbollah’s response to the self-defense carve-out. Any skirmishes or formal ceasefire breach declarations could move odds quickly.