Israel military chief: Iran significantly weakened by air campaigns

Israel’s military chief, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, said Iran is significantly weakened following sustained air campaigns. The Polymarket contract on Iranian regime fall by June 30 is at 11.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Zamir’s assessment coincides with escalated strikes targeting Iranian regime infrastructure. Odds on Iranian regime fall by June 30 moved from 8% to 11.5% YES over 24 hours. The market has $36,383 in daily USDC trading volume, with $22,171 required to move the price 5 points. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop.

The 3.5-point jump suggests traders are pricing in the possibility that intensified operations could destabilize Iran’s leadership. Still, 11.5% odds mean the market is deeply skeptical that regime change happens this fast. Traders are assigning some probability to it but treating regime durability as the base case.

Zamir’s comments point to operations aimed not just at military attrition but at the regime’s structural foundations. The market remains cautious. At 11.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 8.7x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need to believe the strikes trigger internal collapse within 82 days.

Watch for Mojtaba Khamenei’s public absence, IRGC leadership changes, or unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings. Any of these would signal real instability.

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