Israel restarts Karish gas platform after US-Iran ceasefire

Israel will resume operations at the Karish natural gas platform following a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

The ceasefire prompted Israel to restart Karish after securing safety approvals. The odds for a ceasefire by April 30 are also at 100% YES, up from 34% a week ago. The term structure shows full confidence across all active sub-markets, with no spread between dates. Traders expect sustained diplomatic progress without backsliding.

The market has $3.2M in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with high liquidity and strong trader conviction. The order book is thick, with significant USDC required to move prices. The largest price move was a spike from 99% to 100% for the April 30 market, confirming the ceasefire news’s impact.

Israel’s operational restart at Karish, a major energy asset, signals that decision-makers treat the ceasefire as durable rather than temporary. At 100% YES, the market prices no chance of reversal in the immediate term. The flat term structure across dates means traders view the diplomatic shift as settled, not fragile.

Watch for CENTCOM updates and any diplomatic activity from intermediaries like Oman and Qatar. The next signal will come from formal announcements or agreements stemming from these talks.

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