Earn with Nexo
Israel has declared it will not discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah during upcoming Lebanon talks, putting downward pressure on the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market across its March 31, April 30, and June 30 sub-markets.
Market reaction
The refusal to negotiate a ceasefire is bearish for any near-term agreement. Israel continues military operations under Operation Eternal Darkness, and the largest strikes since the conflict began hit over 100 Hezbollah targets. The US-Iran ceasefire market is unaffected, sitting at 100% YES for all active sub-markets. Israel is treating Hezbollah as separate from the US-Iran talks, though escalation in Lebanon could strain US-Iran dynamics if regional tensions rise.
Why it matters
Israel’s firm stance makes a ceasefire with Hezbollah unlikely in the near term. Military operations show no signs of halting, and a YES share on a ceasefire by March 31 would require a dramatic shift in either diplomatic or military posture. Netanyahu is engaging with Lebanon’s government but refusing to deal with Hezbollah directly, which limits the pathways to any agreement.
What to watch
Washington talks next week are the next catalyst. Any shift in rhetoric or an unexpected diplomatic opening could change the trajectory. The key variable is whether Netanyahu’s willingness to talk to Lebanon’s government, while excluding Hezbollah, produces any framework that Hezbollah would accept or that could be imposed on them.
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