Israel sees higher chance of ending Iran conflict than resuming hostilities

Israel now assesses that ending the Iran conflict is more likely than resuming hostilities. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 8% YES, unchanged for days.

That assessment has moved related peace deal markets. The April 22 market is priced at 31.5%, up from 12% a week ago. The April 30 market has moved more sharply, sitting at 52.5%, double from 17% a week prior. The spread between April 22 and April 30 suggests traders see mid-to-late April as the likeliest window for diplomatic action.

Combined 24-hour USDC volume across these markets is $699,190. The largest single move was a 4-point spike in the April 22 market at 12:18 AM (20% to 24%). The cost to move odds five points is $16,401, which means the book is moderately liquid but still vulnerable to large single trades.

Israel’s view comes from a tier-3 source, which warrants caution. But a YES share at 31.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 6.67x return. That bet depends on signs of intermediary activity or a formalized dialogue announcement in the near term.

Watch Oman and Qatar for intermediary actions or announcements. A shift in rhetoric from US or Iranian leaders could move these markets fast. Trump statements or reported back-channel meetings are the most likely catalysts.

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