Israel has launched strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley, the first such action since the ceasefire began three weeks ago. The market for an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 sits at 100.0% YES.

Israel says the strikes are a response to repeated Hezbollah attacks during the ceasefire. The odds for a ceasefire by April 30, six days away, also sit at 100.0% YES. No trades have occurred in the past 24 hours, which points to trader disengagement rather than conviction in the ceasefire holding.

Israel’s strikes represent active hostilities during what is nominally a truce. The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 market remains at 100.0% YES despite the military escalation.

Trading volume across these markets is zero, with $0 in USDC traded. This total lack of liquidity means the markets are vulnerable to sudden swings from even a single trade. The 100% odds reflect stale pricing, not active consensus.

The Beqaa strikes put direct pressure on the ceasefire’s durability. At current odds, any actual ceasefire collapse would require a sharp repricing. A formal diplomatic shift, likely involving direct statements from Netanyahu or Lebanese Prime Minister Salam, would be the most probable catalyst. YES share payouts remain nominal given the 100% pricing.

Watch for statements from the IDF or Hezbollah’s leadership in the coming days. Netanyahu’s next move or any new ceasefire terms could directly move these markets.

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