Israel, US support Iran negotiations for military threat reduction

Israeli Ambassador Michael Leiter stated that Israel and the US back ongoing negotiations with Iran, focused on reducing Iran’s military threats. Ceasefire by April 30 is at 100% YES.

## Market reaction

The ceasefire markets for April 15 and April 30 remain at 100% YES, as does the term structure out to December 31. With five days until the April 15 resolution, traders are unmoved by the diplomatic signals and maintain their bets on a short-term ceasefire.

## Why it matters

For the US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, the lack of explicit new commitments leaves odds uncertain. Leiter’s statement is a positive signal, but the market remains cautious without tangible agreements or meetings finalized. Current sentiment doesn’t reflect increased confidence in a permanent deal.

## What to watch

Trading context is thin, with no reported face value volume over the past 24 hours. The current pricing suggests traders believe in a status quo hold rather than any immediate breakthrough.

Leiter’s comments follow a standard diplomatic pattern: signaling openness while maintaining defense postures. Buying into a permanent peace deal market right now is speculative without concrete steps like intermediary meetings or signed agreements.

Watch for announcements of resumed talks, especially involving intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. A confirmed meeting or a public statement from President Trump or Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi could shift these markets.

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