Israeli Ambassador Michael Leiter stated that Israel and the US back ongoing negotiations with Iran, focused on reducing Iran’s military threats. Ceasefire by April 30 is at 100% YES.

## Market reaction

The ceasefire markets for April 15 and April 30 remain at 100% YES, as does the term structure out to December 31. With five days until the April 15 resolution, traders are unmoved by the diplomatic signals and maintain their bets on a short-term ceasefire.

## Why it matters

For the US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, the lack of explicit new commitments leaves odds uncertain. Leiter’s statement is a positive signal, but the market remains cautious without tangible agreements or meetings finalized. Current sentiment doesn’t reflect increased confidence in a permanent deal.

## What to watch

Trading context is thin, with no reported face value volume over the past 24 hours. The current pricing suggests traders believe in a status quo hold rather than any immediate breakthrough.

Leiter’s comments follow a standard diplomatic pattern: signaling openness while maintaining defense postures. Buying into a permanent peace deal market right now is speculative without concrete steps like intermediary meetings or signed agreements.

Watch for announcements of resumed talks, especially involving intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. A confirmed meeting or a public statement from President Trump or Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi could shift these markets.

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