Israeli High Court to hear case on Ben-Gvir’s role, testing Netanyahu’s coalition

The Israeli High Court will hear petitions urging Prime Minister Netanyahu to fire National Security Minister Ben-Gvir over alleged unlawful interference with police independence. Netanyahu out by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES, down from 6% a week ago.

Ben-Gvir’s removal would cost Netanyahu his coalition majority, which is why traders are watching the June 30 market at 5.5% YES. The April 30 market is priced at 1.0% YES, down from 2% a week ago. The 4-point gap between April 30 and June 30 suggests traders expect any political shift to come later in the quarter, not immediately after the hearing.

Daily trading volume on the Netanyahu market is $2,567 in USDC, with $7,063 needed to move the June 30 odds by 5 points. That’s moderate liquidity, enough to attract real money but thin enough that a single large trade could swing the price.

The hearing puts a direct legal question to the court: whether Netanyahu has a duty to dismiss a minister found to be interfering with police operations. At 6¢, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu is out by June 30, a 16.67x return. Buying at that price means betting on a full coalition collapse within 76 days.

Watch for Knesset maneuvers or coalition member statements after the hearing. If Ben-Gvir’s position becomes untenable, this market could move fast on thin liquidity.

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