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JD Vance has facilitated US-Iran talks in Islamabad, and the Polymarket contract for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 sits at 100%.
Market reaction
The April 15 ceasefire market is at 100%, and longer-term contracts through April 30 to December 31 are also at 100%. The “Trump announces US-Iran ceasefire end” market shows negligible odds of any imminent termination, with little movement absent new military developments or hawkish rhetoric.
Why it matters
Vance’s direct involvement in Islamabad adds credibility to the ceasefire’s durability, even though the sourcing is tier-3. Traders are pricing in continued diplomatic engagement rather than military escalation. A YES share in the ceasefire market is priced at 100¢, offering no upside but confirming that the market treats the ceasefire as a settled outcome.
What to watch
The outcome of the Islamabad talks and any shifts in rhetoric from US or Iranian officials. The next key date is the separate Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington next week.
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