JD Vance plans to negotiate with Iran in Pakistan, aiming for the release of detained Americans. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

This follows a two-week ceasefire announced by Trump on April 8. The April 30 odds are also at 100% YES, up from 34% seven days ago. The May 31 and June 30 markets hold at 100% YES, consistent with trader confidence that the ceasefire will persist through the summer.

Total 24-hour USDC volume is $3,232,549. The market’s high face value compared to actual USDC traded suggests potential over-reporting of liquidity. Moving the price by 5 percentage points requires substantial capital, which points to institutional-level trading.

Vance’s engagement signals potential de-escalation from recent military actions. At 100% YES, a YES share prices out the chance of failure entirely. For traders, there is no upside left unless the talks collapse or some unforeseen setback occurs.

Watch for outcomes of the Islamabad talks this weekend, particularly any announcements on prisoner exchanges or shifts in US-Iran rhetoric. Either could break the market’s current certainty.

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