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Jordan’s Senate Speaker urged activating the Arab defense treaty after recent regional tensions. The US-Iran ceasefire odds for April 7 dropped to 1.9% YES from 8% yesterday.
The push for a joint Arab defense treaty suggests possible military coordination among Arab states, reducing ceasefire chances. The April 7 market is at 2%, showing skepticism about a quick resolution. The April 15 odds fell to 8.5% from 20% a day ago, indicating traders expect increased tensions after Jordan’s statement.
The April 30 market shows a less severe drop, now at 24.5% YES from 40% yesterday. Between April 30 and May 31, there’s a 22-point rise, suggesting traders anticipate a potential peace catalyst in late April or May. Markets trade with a daily face value of $5.3M, but actual USDC traded is $661,902, highlighting speculative interest and volatility.
The biggest price move was a 4-point drop in the May 31 market, likely due to increased military action risks. With $26,211 needed to move the April 7 market by 5 points, the robust order book suggests institutional involvement.
This matters because it signals a shift toward regional military alliances that could hinder US-Iran peace efforts. Traders see high uncertainty and stakes in geopolitical maneuvers. A YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 for every 2¢ spent, a risky bet given current conditions. Future odds could change with diplomatic moves or military escalations.
Watch for announcements from Arab League members or changes in US military posture. Statements from CENTCOM or shifts in US or Iranian rhetoric could also impact markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.9% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 24.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 46.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 59.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 71.5% YES
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