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Kalshi valuation hits $22B as prediction market raises $1B amid legal uncertainty
The CFTC-regulated prediction market doubled its valuation in five months, even as 17 states challenge its sports contracts and Congress probes insider trading concerns.
Kalshi just raised $1 billion in a Series F round, pushing its valuation to $22 billion. That’s double the $11 billion it was worth just five months ago.
The round, which closed on May 7, was led by Coatue with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, IVP, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest.
The numbers behind the hype
Kalshi’s annualized trading volume jumped from $52 billion to $178 billion in roughly six months. Institutional trading volume surged 800% over the same period. The platform now commands over 90% of US prediction market activity.
CEO Tarek Mansour has suggested that event contracts could eventually become a trillion-dollar market.
Crypto rails, traditional guardrails
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange while aggressively embracing crypto infrastructure. The platform accepts deposits in USDC, Bitcoin, and Solana. Since December 2025, Kalshi has tokenized its event contracts on the Solana blockchain, meaning regulated prediction market contracts can now live on-chain and interact with decentralized finance platforms like Jupiter and DFlow.
The legal storm
More than 17 states are actively contesting Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts. The tension between federal oversight (Kalshi is CFTC-regulated) and state-level gambling laws creates a jurisdictional battle. Congress is also investigating potential insider trading issues on the platform.
Kalshi has won significant federal court battles in the past, including a landmark case against the CFTC itself that allowed it to list election contracts.
What this means for investors
Morgan Stanley sitting alongside crypto-native firms like Paradigm in the same cap table signals that the prediction market thesis has crossed into mainstream financial infrastructure. If states succeed in blocking sports-related contracts, that could remove a meaningful chunk of Kalshi’s addressable market. The Congressional investigation could also lead to new regulations that increase compliance costs or restrict certain contract types.
Kalshi’s Solana integration provides a potential template for tokenized regulated financial products interacting with DeFi platforms like Jupiter and DFlow. With 90% market share, Kalshi is effectively the only game in town for regulated US prediction markets.