The prediction markets industry just got its own lobbying arm, and it’s not being shy about picking a fight.

Americans for Fair Markets, a new advocacy organization backed by Kalshi, launched on May 22 with a clear mission: push back against the gambling industry’s efforts to block federally regulated prediction markets at the state level. The group has enlisted Taylor Budowich, a former Deputy White House Chief of Staff under Donald Trump, as a strategic advisor, signaling that this won’t be a quiet, white-paper-only kind of operation.

The players and the playbook

Kalshi, the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, reported a 32x increase in annualized trading volume over the past year. The broader sector now sits at roughly $500 billion in value, with millions of users participating monthly in the US alone.

The American Gaming Association, led by former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, has been working to convince state legislators that prediction markets are essentially unregulated gambling wearing a suit. AFM’s position is that this narrative is misleading, and that the gaming lobby’s real concern is competition, not consumer safety.

John Bivona, Kalshi’s Head of Government Relations, now holds a board position at AFM. His message to the opposition has been blunt: they will not be outspent or out-organized by entrenched interests.

Budowich’s resume includes running White House communications and leading a pro-Trump super PAC. AFM plans to wage both paid and earned media campaigns.

AFM is also partnering with the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an existing industry group, to strengthen its advocacy while maintaining its own distinct operational framework.

What AFM is actually fighting for

The group’s policy agenda comes down to three pillars: federal CFTC oversight of prediction markets, consumer protections including insider trading bans, and the preservation of individual decision-making rights for adults.

AFM is drawing a sharp line between onshore regulated exchanges like Kalshi, which conduct Know Your Customer processes, and offshore platforms that don’t. The argument is that if you push regulated platforms out of the market, you’re not killing demand — you’re sending it to platforms with zero oversight.

The bipartisan Gillibrand-McCormick bill and ongoing CFTC rulemaking are both active threads in the regulatory conversation. AFM wants to ensure those conversations go in a direction favorable to prediction market platforms rather than one shaped primarily by gaming industry lobbyists.

FairPredicts, a newly formed organization, sits on the other side of the debate. The prediction markets regulatory battle is shaping up to have its own dueling lobbying infrastructure.

Congress has also launched an investigation into insider trading on prediction platforms. If the investigation leads to stricter rules, AFM can position itself as the group that was already calling for consumer protections.