Latin American assets have seen a downturn as global markets react to President Donald Trump’s declaration that the Iran nuclear agreement is “over.” The announcement came amid renewed military conflicts between the United States and Iran, resulting in the revocation of an oil sanctions waiver. This move has reignited geopolitical tensions, impacting energy markets and raising risk premiums globally. The situation has prompted a reassessment of the potential for a US-Iran deal in 2026, particularly regarding reconstruction funding and uranium enrichment terms. Market indicators suggest a significant decline in the likelihood of these elements being included in any future agreement.

Key Takeaways

• Market activity suggests a 25% decrease in the probability of US-Iran reconstruction funding being included in a 2026 deal, following Trump’s announcement.
• Pricing indicates decreased confidence in any immediate resolution of the US-Iran nuclear agreement, reflected by a decline in related market odds.
• The geopolitical risk premium has risen, affecting trade-dependent Latin American economies, as markets adjust to the heightened uncertainty.

What to Watch

Observers will be monitoring any statements from key actors such as US President Donald Trump, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, and involved mediators from Qatar and Pakistan. Developments that could suggest a shift towards a resolution include any joint statements or confirmations from international bodies like the IAEA. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor in market sentiment. However, further escalations, including military actions by Israel or increased enrichment activities by Iran, could continue to drive market volatility.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.