Lawrence Jones pressed FBI Director Kash Patel over repeated assassination attempts on President Trump. The June 30 departure contract is at 61% YES, up from 56% yesterday.

Market reaction

The June 30 contract spiked 3 points at 2:33 AM. The December 31 contract sits at 79% YES, unchanged over the last 24 hours. The April 30 market is at 14.3% YES, with little time left until resolution.

Why it matters

The term structure shows a 47-point jump in odds between April 30 and June 30, a 61-day window. Traders are pricing in a specific development during that period, not a gradual drift. The largest volume is on the April 30 contract at $17,764 in daily face value, where the near-term resolution concentrates attention.

What to watch

Total face value across all sub-markets is $25,466, but actual USDC traded is $7,114. The June 30 market has only $107 in depth to move 5 points, meaning a relatively small trade can swing the price. The December 31 contract has $1,551 in depth at the same threshold, making it harder to move.

At 61¢, buying YES for June 30 pays $1 if Patel exits, a 1.64x return. That bet requires a catalyst within 67 days. Watch for White House statements or new FBI investigative findings. Any public move by Trump on Patel’s position could shift these contracts fast.

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