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Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has called for negotiations with Israel to end the conflict, while the IDF continues its strikes on Hezbollah in Beirut. The US-Iran ceasefire odds for April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% just a day ago.
Traders see Aoun’s call for talks as a sign of ongoing instability. The April 7 ceasefire odds are negligible. The April 15 market has fallen to 6% from 8%, and the April 30 market is now at 18%, down from 24%.
The trading data reflects this sentiment. With $22,948 in USDC traded for the April 7 market, traders aren’t expecting a quick resolution. Market depth shows it takes $12,367 to move the price by 5 points, indicating decent liquidity but not strong conviction. The largest 24-hour move was a 1-point drop, suggesting cooling expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough.
The call for talks seems unlikely to lead to a ceasefire soon, given ongoing airstrikes. Traders see slim chances for a US-Iran ceasefire by early April. A YES share at 1¢ for April 7 pays $1 if successful, but it requires belief in a quick diplomatic turnaround.
Watch for any actions from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or changes in US rhetoric, which could shift market dynamics. Until then, expect little change.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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