The Lebanese president has urged negotiations with Israel as the IDF targets Hezbollah in Beirut. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

The market reflects ongoing military tensions. With the April 7 deadline just four days away, odds have fallen from 12% a week ago. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, down from 22% a week ago. The April 30 market stands at 18% YES, a drop from 24% yesterday. Traders expect any diplomatic breakthroughs after these dates.

USDC trading volume is at $431,402 in the last 24 hours, showing strong market engagement. The April 7 market requires $12,352 to move the price 5 points, indicating sensitivity to large trades. The biggest odds shift is anticipated between April 30 and May 31, suggesting a potential catalyst in late April or early May.

The Lebanese president’s call for talks hasn’t yet led to progress. Traders remain skeptical due to ongoing Israeli strikes and the broader US-Israel-Iran conflict. At 1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire offers a 100x payout if it resolves, but current conditions make it a long shot. Belief in a sudden diplomatic breakthrough in the next four days is required for these odds to be viable.

Watch for intermediary roles from Oman or Qatar and any rhetoric changes from figures like Trump or the Khamenei successor. Significant shifts here could affect market odds.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES

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