Earn with Nexo
Lebanon and Israel held their first ambassador-level call in Washington to discuss a ceasefire and future negotiations. Odds for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026, on the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market remain undetermined, with no sub-market pricing currently available.
Market reaction
No concrete pricing exists on the ceasefire market yet. A YES share at a hypothetical low price would offer significant upside if a ceasefire formalizes, but the market has not moved to reflect the ambassador-level call. Traders have no sub-market odds to anchor positions.
Why it matters
Netanyahu recently rejected Lebanon’s ceasefire offer, making this call a reversal. The shift came after pressure from Trump. The talks are part of a U.S.-brokered effort to clarify Lebanon’s status in the ceasefire framework: Israel claims Lebanon is excluded from the framework, while Iran, Pakistan, and Lebanon argue otherwise. A formal ceasefire would require public acknowledgment by both Israel and Hezbollah, which is uncertain given ongoing military operations and diplomatic tensions. Iran has also threatened to withdraw from Pakistan talks unless Israel halts its strikes, linking the two diplomatic tracks.
What to watch
– Netanyahu’s next moves and any shift in Israel’s public position on Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire framework – Statements from Hezbollah on whether they view the call as meaningful – IDF announcements on halting or continuing operations – Trump’s role in mediating further talks – Developments from the scheduled Iran negotiations in Pakistan this weekend
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