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Lebanon is suffering severe destruction from Israeli strikes on civilians while Hezbollah rebuilds with Iranian support and the government remains largely non-functional. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market sits at
Market reaction
The March 31 ceasefire market has seen no movement. The June 30 sub-market is also inactive, with $0 face value in recent trading volume. Traders are pricing in essentially zero probability of a ceasefire in the near term.
Why it matters
Hezbollah is rebuilding with Iranian backing while Israeli airstrikes continue, pointing to a prolonged conflict. Lebanon’s political system is frozen: Hezbollah’s opposition has blocked the election of a new president, which compounds the instability and makes any negotiated settlement harder to reach.
What to watch
For the ceasefire market to move, there would need to be concrete signals like direct talks between Israel and Hezbollah or a successful mediation effort. Neither is happening now. US or Iranian involvement could shift the picture. A change in Iran’s regional oil route strategy or new US diplomatic engagement would be the most likely catalysts for any movement in ceasefire odds.
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